Crypto ETF Can Ultimately Drive Bitcoin 4-8x Higher and Theres a 50% Chance VanEck Gets Approved In 12-18 Months

Crypto ETF Can Ultimately Drive Bitcoin 4-8x Higher and Theres a 50% Chance VanEck Gets Approved In 12-18 Months

Executive Summary


We believe a crypto ETF will drive the next bull market, and the differentiated and pending VanEck application has the best potential for approval since it is based upon physical Bitcoin and is focused on institutional clients, unlike all past denied ETFs. The SEC on September 20, 2018 that it is seeking public comment on the ETF, as such the original September 30, 2018 decision date will likely be delayed into 2019. We put VanEck’s approval at 50% over the next 12-18 months.


With over $5T in assets, if global ETFs were to allocate 1% of their holdings to Crypto ETFs as an uncorrelated asset and as a store of value, this would amount to inflows of ~$50B, or half of Bitcoins’ current market cap. This would drive multiple increases in Bitcoin’s value in our opinion, and impact increases dramatically as Global ETF allocation increases, which we detail. A Bitcoin ETF is a preface to broader crypto ETFs, and is positive for the entire space as funds would also flow from Bitcoin to other crypto projects.


We believe a crypto ETF will come before viral decentralized applications and mass traditional hedge fund involvement. This is because Crypto ETFs are further along, the infrastructure to support viral DApps is still being built (Bitcoin’s Lightning, Ethereum with sharding, etc). It is also much easier for crypto-accustomed consumers (space is 90%+ retail) to point and click to purchase a crypto ETF versus traditional funds mass which would require complex and circular discussions around valuation in front of an investment board.


We believe in the future crypto ETF managers will be forced to differentiate beyond costs; on how they handle crypto events such as forks, voting and airdrops in an active manner due to the nature of the space. A future could also involve automated ETFs built as smart contracts that adhere to coded rules with little to no costs.


VanEck ETF Has The Best Chance Of Being Approved


The SEC has taken a hard stance on crypto ETFs, most recently denying nine separate applications in late August by three different parties (GraniteShares, ProShares, Direxion) after denying the high profile filing in late June by the Winklevoss Twins who own crypto exchange Gemini. The nine denied ETF’s were based on bitcoin futures markets, which the SEC argued is currently too small and doesn’t have protections in place to prevent manipulative practices.


We believe the VanEck ETF has the best chance of ultimately being approved following the SEC’s recent comment period. Unlike the denied filings based on futures, VanEck’s ETF is based upon actually holding the underlying Bitcoin. This is possible as custody offerings are gaining momentum which were not available in the past; leading earlier applicants to base their ETFs on futures. The SEC’s comment period will likely take several months, as such we expect an approval would not be until 1H19 at the earliest.

Subscribe To View The Rest Of This Report

Choose from a monthly or annual subscription (save over 15%).


$250/ year
  • Extensive Research Reports
  • Access to Full Content Library
  • No Calls, Emails or Meetings with Analysts

  • Podcast Transcriptions


Additional Resources:


 SEC Filings:





Tom Shaughnessy owns Ethereum. By reading this post you agree to 51percent Crypto Research’s Terms and Conditions. This report is solely informational and is not investment advice.

  • Additional Disclosures:
  • 51percent is not a FINRA registered broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not provide investment banking services
  • The author did not accept fees, stock or other compensation for preparing this research report. The only fees 51percent earns is through paying subscribers to 51percent, the companies (or entities, since networks or protocols are not all companies) themselves do not compensate 51percent.
  • 51percent was not hired by the covered entity/company to prepare the report.
  • 51percent and its authors will not receive compensation from the entities covered in this report for non-report services such as presenting at author sponsored investor conferences, distributing press releases or other ancillary services.
  • The covered entities in this report are not required to engage with 51percent regarding any non-report related services.
  • The entities covered in this report have not previously paid the author in cash or in stock for any research reports or non-report related services
  • Compensation is not received on any basis (fixed or contingent on positive opinions in this report) since 51percent is only compensated by paying subscribers to and not the companies or entities mentioned.
  • The author, Tom Shaughnessy, owns tokens in Ethereum, MakerDAO, 0x Protocol, HYDRO, Civic, Polymath and Gladius. These are subject to change.
  • This report belongs to the author, not any entities mentioned in this report.
  • This report is based on publicly available information about the entities covered, and the authors consider them to be accurate and reliable. 
  • The report is disseminated primarily electronically and is made available to everyone at the same time.
  • This report is not investment advice, it is strictly informational. Do not trade or invest in any tokens, companies or entities based upon this information.


Leave a Reply